As the world moves towards the December Summit in Copenhagen in an effort to hammer out some type of global agreement around carbon emissions, political and economic factors will make the effort tricky, especially in the US and China.
China, the number 1 emitter of C02, has recently taken a stance more friendly to environmental causes than was true in the past – but also continues to make it clear that economic growth will come first.
While China’s economy has suffered less than most across the globe, and is expected to finish the year with an 8% growth rate, the government stimulus has been behind much of the strength, and the government there is extremely focused on unemployment and potential domestic unrest. Due to the sharp drop in imports from the US, Europe and Japan, tens of thousands of factories have closed in China, sending millions of workers back to rural areas as their jobs are lost.
In a recent joint appearance at the G20 summit, both US president Obama and Chinese president Hu Jintao called for action to reduce carbon emissions, but with little support in terms of actual details of what actions could or would be taken.
Hu pledged that China would reduce its “carbon intensity,” but not likely its actual carbon emissions. Carbon intensity refers to the level of emissions per some level of output, such as units produced. Hu also said China would reduce its emissions per unit of output by a “notable margin” over the next 11 years, per its public goals, however, with a rapidly growing economy, China’s total carbon emissions could still grow substantially in that time.
Carbon emissions from the US and China represent about 40% of the world total (see graphic below), with China actually being the largest emitter and at rapidly growing levels, given its double-digit economic growth for almost a decade.
While Hu said China will take such steps as reducing its reliance on coal-fired energy plants (likely in favor of nuclear), plant more forests, and increase use of other renewable energy sources, it is unlikely to accept any sort of hard cap, which could impede economic growth.
Obama, meanwhile, has said he will press for an agreement in Copenhagen for a worldwide treaty capping emissions, a stance that will make most European nations happy. How such a treaty will work if China, India and other developing economies don’t agree is unclear. Such a treaty would also have to gain the support of the Senate in the US, where the prospects are unclear, though a global treaty – especially one that included China – would likely put additional pressure on the Senate to approve the pact versus passing a US-only cap-and-trade bill.
If China and other countries don’t go along for the ride, French president Sarkozy has called for some form of “carbon tariff” against imports from those countries to level the playing field in terms of production costs. (See Green Supply Chain News: French President Plans on Carbon Taxes - and Tariffs.)
Do you think there is any chance that the Chinese will agree to any sort of emissions cap? What will happen in Copenhagen if they don’t? Let us know your thoughts at the Feedback button below.
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